The much-anticipated cabinet reshuffle by President Cyril Ramaphosa appears imminent, with insiders in government and the ANC saying he has concluded all the consultations he needed to make before announcing the changes.

But what are the changes the president is likely to make?

Recent history shows that though lobbyists, especially within the ruling party, play important roles in influencing changes, the final word is always the president’s and lobby groups can be overruled at the last minute. Ramaphosa’s predecessor, Jacob Zuma — who became infamous for making executive changes at the slightest provocation — was known for changing his mind on the removal of a minister or the appointment of their replacement at the 11th hour, leaving his inner circle in a spin. Of course this may have been largely due to the influence of the Guptas, who were regarded as the power behind the throne at the Union Buildings...