Third Covid-19 wave full of unknowns, but more than 70,000 could ...

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Third Covid-19 wave full of unknowns, but more than 70,000 could die

This figure is based on a ‘slow, weak, response’. But if the reaction is ‘fast and strong’, it could be about 7,800

Senior science reporter

SA’s third wave of Covid-19 could see more than 70,000 deaths if there is a “slow, weak, response” to its inception, but about 7,800 if the response is “fast and strong”.

These figures, which include Covid-19 deaths in and out of hospital, are according to the latest model by the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium. They were released by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

The researchers said (https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/SACMC-Third-wave-report-290421.pdf) the modelled scenarios “do not yet include the impact of vaccination and do not estimate the timing of a third wave”. There is “substantial uncertainty” about if and when a new variant might emerge, and changes in population behaviour “remain unpredictable”...

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