Excess deaths head up again, but it could be ‘random fluctuation’
Based on 2018 and 2019 data, deaths in the week ending September 8 were 14% higher than forecast
Last night’s announcement that the Covid-19 lockdown is being eased to level 1 coincided with an uptick in excess deaths linked directly or indirectly to the virus.
The 10,961 deaths recorded in the week ending September 8 was 14% higher than the predicted number based on data for the same week in 2018 and 2019, according to the weekly report (https://www.samrc.ac.za/sites/default/files/files/2020-09-16/weekly8September2020.pdf) from the SA Medical Research Council’s (SAMRC) burden of disease research unit and the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) centre for actuarial research.
However, even though the 1,320 excess deaths outnumbered the total in the previous week, “the difference is well within random fluctuation”, the report said on Wednesday...