It was a helluva job, but these modellers got the Covid-19 death toll right
We take no joy in it, says expert, explaining the many variables to be factored in to come up with numbers
Covid-19 modellers have had a tough task, but one group in particular seems to have hit the nail on the head: the National Covid-19 Modelling Consortium said 40,000 people would die from the disease and it looks as if the number for this year will be 36,000.
Prof Gesine Meyer-Rath, a modeller at the Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office in Johannesburg, recently disclosed on a Sunday TimesLIVE Dialogues that the consortium of which she is a member had got it right.
“We take no joy in this,” she said, “but we will probably end up being close to the 40,000 that we projected in mid-May, if you include excess deaths.”..