Economists’ predictions are just ‘absurd pseudo-scientific ...

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Economists’ predictions are just ‘absurd pseudo-scientific guesses’

Two financial experts argue that the public has a misplaced faith in the profession’s forecasts

Russell Lynch

That ripping sound you may have heard lately is the noise of economists around the world tearing up carefully honed forecasts, thanks to the spreading coronavirus outbreak.

For Mervyn King, the former Bank of England governor, and John Kay, a senior economist, the all-too-rapid redundancy of the investment banks’ glossy brochures merely underline the folly of such prognostications in the first place.

In their new book, Radical Uncertainty, the pair turn a critical gaze on their own economics profession and find it badly wanting. They paint an unsparing picture of a discipline enslaved by its models, pretending to knowledge it cannot possibly have, and losing public trust as a consequence...

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