SA’s rotten fundamentals plus Covid-19 equals a very ghastly future
The virus and our poor reformist trajectory make 2020 feel like the global financial crisis all over again
Before the coronavirus outbreak there were just two questions that dominated suburban dinner parties: how bad is SA’s fiscal situation and should we be leaving the country.
The answer to the first is that things look a lot worse since the February budget, even worse since the 2019 GDP stats came out, and much, much worse since the onset of the pandemic.
As to the second question, the Treasury’s growth document says SA faces a 10-year slog to restore growth to 3%, which is a prerequisite for getting its public finances back under control. But this will only be achieved if the reform momentum is relentless – which we are still not seeing...